For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: [hidden email]
The August report of the 2015 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available!
The SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,
http://www.arcus.org/search-program). The goal of the SIO is to improve
Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales.
Organizers thank the record 38 groups (one of which is regional only)
that submitted to the August report. This Outlook was developed by lead
author Walt Meier (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) with contributions
from the rest of the SIPN leadership team. This month's report includes
a compilation of ship-based observations from the Geographic Information
Network of Alaska IceWatch program, a discussion of the August modeling
contributions and how they compare to June and July, a look at the
predictions in specific regions, and a discussion of current ice and
The median August Outlook for September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent is
4.8 million square kilometers (km2), 200,000 km2 lower than the June and
July medians. The quartile range is 4.2 to 5.2 million km2.
Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical, dynamical
models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information. The
overall range (excluding an extreme outlier) is 2.7 to 5.6 million km2.
The low end of the range dropped substantially from July (3.3 million
km2), due to one new contribution, while the high end changed only
slightly from July (5.7 million km2).
The median's decrease from the June and July values reflects rather
rapid ice loss during July. The drop is mostly due to lower statistical
and mixed statistical/heuristic contributions because these methods are
generally at least partially based on extrapolation from
current/previous conditions whereas modeling contributions are generally
This is the last monthly SIO report for the 2015 season. Post-season
activities will provide an analysis of the different Outlook
methodologies as well as a general review of sea ice dynamics over the