The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2015 July
report. There were 35 contributions (one of which is regional only), an
increase from June, for a new record number of submissions. This July
Outlook report was developed by lead author Walt Meier (NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center), with contributions from the rest of the SIPN
leadership team (http://www.arcus.org/sipn) and with a section analyzing
the model contributions by Francois Massonnet (Universite catholique de
Louvain and Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences).
The median Outlook for September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent is 5.0
million square kilometers (km2), which is the same as the June Outlook
median. The quartile range is 4.4 to 5.2 km2. Contributions are based on
a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, estimates based on
trends, and subjective information. The overall range (excluding an
extreme outlier) is 3.3 to 5.7 million km2. The median Outlook value is
up from the July 2014 median value of 4.8 million km2. These values
compare to the observed values of 4.3 million km2 in 2007, 4.6 million
km2 in 2011, 3.6 million km2 in 2012, and 5.3 million km2 in 2014.
This month's report also includes the following pieces:
--A discussion on the ocean-sea ice and coupled model contributions;
- A section on regional outlooks including discussion of factors
affecting predictions for sea ice probability (SIP) in different regions;
- A section on current ice and atmospheric conditions;
- Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the 35 Outlook contributions.
This is the second monthly SIO for the 2015 season. A call for
contributions for the August report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: [hidden email]
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)
3535 College Road Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710