2016 Sea Ice Outlook - July Report Available

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2016 Sea Ice Outlook - July Report Available

Betsy Turner-Bogren
The July report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).

The complete report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/july.

The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. This month's report was developed by lead authors Cecilia
Bitz and Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (U. of Washington) with
contributions from the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team
(https://www.arcus.org/sipn/leadership).

Organizers thank all who contributed to the 37 Outlooks received for
this report, which includes 36 pan-Arctic outlooks (3 of which also
provided Alaska-regional outlooks), and one additional regional-only
outlook. Five contributions included gridded fields. The median
pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.3
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, mixed methods, estimates based on trends, and two
informal polls.

This month's report also includes:

- Discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance,
which has narrowed since the June report;
- Discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and
the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models;
- Discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and
probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions;
- Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download individual contributions.

This is the second monthly SIO for the 2016 season. A call for
contributions to the August report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).

For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: [hidden email]

-----
Betsy Turner-Bogren
Project Manager
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)
3535 College Road Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710
Phone: 907/474-1600
[hidden email]

Follow ARCUS on twitter: @ArcticResearch



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