2016 Sea Ice Outlook - July Report Available

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2016 Sea Ice Outlook - July Report Available

Betsy Turner-Bogren
The July report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).

The complete report is available at:

The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. This month's report was developed by lead authors Cecilia
Bitz and Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (U. of Washington) with
contributions from the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team

Organizers thank all who contributed to the 37 Outlooks received for
this report, which includes 36 pan-Arctic outlooks (3 of which also
provided Alaska-regional outlooks), and one additional regional-only
outlook. Five contributions included gridded fields. The median
pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.3
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, mixed methods, estimates based on trends, and two
informal polls.

This month's report also includes:

- Discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance,
which has narrowed since the June report;
- Discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and
the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models;
- Discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and
probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions;
- Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download individual contributions.

This is the second monthly SIO for the 2016 season. A call for
contributions to the August report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).

For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: [hidden email]

Betsy Turner-Bogren
Project Manager
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)
3535 College Road Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710
Phone: 907/474-1600
[hidden email]

Follow ARCUS on twitter: @ArcticResearch

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