The June report for the 2017 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales.
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2017 June
report; 33 contributions that include pan-Arctic predictions, 2
additional contributions with a regional focus, and 7 Antarctic
forecasts. This June Outlook report was developed by lead authors
Julienne Stroeve (NSIDC) and Walt Meier (NASA GSFC), with contributions
from Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW), Francois Massonnet (Université
Catholique de Louvain) and the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team.
The median Outlook value for September 2017 sea ice extent is 4.43
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.10 and 4.71 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and two informal polls.
This month's report also includes:
- A discussion about the 14 dynamical model contributions and their variance;
- A section on predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice
probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of
- A section on current sea ice and atmospheric conditions;
- A section on regional ice conditions;
- A discussion of pan-Antarctic contributions,
- Key statements from the 33 individual pan-Arctic Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the pan-Arctic Outlook, pan-Antarctic,
regional, and informal contributions.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2017 season. A call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: [hidden email]