For the June report, 34 contributions were received that include pan-Arctic predictions. Of those contributions, 10 also included pan-Antarctic predictions and 11 included predictions for Alaskan waters. One additional contribution with a regional focus on the Nares Strait was also received.
For the Arctic, the median June Outlook value for a September 2018 sea ice extent projection is 4.6 million square kilometers.
The June report includes analysis of the contributions; a section about predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; a section on current conditions with discussion on this winter's record low sea ice conditions and atmospheric conditions; a section discussing regional ice conditions; and a section discussing Antarctic sea ice extent forecasts.
The June report is the product of the Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) effort. The goal of the previous SIPN1 was to enhance scientific discussion on the physics that control summer sea ice extents. In SIPN2 there is a further analysis of quantitatively comparing model forecast output.
For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS ([hidden email])
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)
3535 College Road Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710
Office phone: 907/474-1600
Direct phone: 907/450-1605