Cryospheric parameters for verification of Unified Forecast System (NOAA)

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Cryospheric parameters for verification of Unified Forecast System (NOAA)

Robert Grumbine
In my personal opinion, cryosphere isn't well-represented so far in the considerations of what model fields should be evaluated from the global coupled unified forecast system. The system includes global ocean, sea ice, and land (permafrost?).

Please consider rating (ranking) parameters and adding ones that are missing at the below links. Cryosphere particularly shows up in the applications for Subseasonal to seasonal / medium range weather (out to about 45 days lead), seasonal (9 months, perhaps to 2 years), and marine and cryosphere (to about 14 days).

There will be a later call for what metrics should be applied to the variables named at this round.

Robert Grumbine

Updated: 15 UTC 10/21 - Please use below


Subject: Verification Metrics Surveys for UFS Applications

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Unified Forecast System's (see Verification and Validation Cross-Cutting Team (UFS-V&V), will be holding a three-day workshop to identify key verification and validation metrics for UFS applications.  The workshop will be held remotely February 22-24, 2021. The goal of the workshop is to identify and prioritize key metrics to use for evaluating UFS research products and establish their readiness to move from one research stage to another prior to becoming operational candidates for the NCEP Production Suite.

In preparation for the Workshop, a series of pre-workshop surveys will be made available to gather community input from the diverse set of customers and stakeholders across government, academic, and private sectors.  Please consider participating and sharing the link with your colleagues.

To participate, please proceed to the 2021 DTC UFS Evaluation Metrics Workshop website to take Survey 1: Fields for up to eight modeling applications. You can also sign up for updates.  The model applications being surveyed:

  • Short Range Weather/Convection Allowing Model, including sub-sections: Upper-Level, Surface/Sensible Weather, Aviation, Air Quality, Precipitation, Severe, Winter Weather, Land Surface, and Hydrologic

  • Medium Range Weather/Subseasonal to Seasonal, including sub-sections: Sub-sections: Upper-Level Synoptic, Surface/Sensible Weather, Land-Surface, Marine/Waves, Sub-Seasonal

  • Seasonal

  • Air Quality/Atmospheric Composition

  • Coastal

  • Hurricane

  • Marine and Cryosphere

  • Space

Survey 1 only attempts to prioritize fields; subsequent surveys will address specific metrics (e.g. RMSE, bias, .....) and specific levels. For this set of surveys we are trying to identify:

  • Critical fields that are needed by the user community to assess skill in each application

  • Omissions in the lists of fields that were generated at the 2018 Evaluation Metrics Workshop

This set of surveys will be open until October 30, 2020.

Thank you in advance for your participation in this important process.
The Workshop Committee

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