The SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) project
as a contribution to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2015 June
report; 32 contributions (one of which is regional only) is a record for
the Sea Ice Outlook and there were several new groups this year.
This month's report was developed by lead authors Cecilia Bitz (UW),
Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW), and Jim Overland (NOAA), with
contributions from the rest of the SIPN leadership team and with a
section analyzing the model contributions by Francois Massonnet
(Universite catholique de Louvain and Catalan Institute of Climate
The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.2 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
numerical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information.
This month's report also includes the following pieces:
- A discussion about the 11 dynamical model contributions and their
variance, which is substantially less than last year;
- A section on regional outlooks including discussion on predictions for
sea ice probability (SIP), showing that SIP is expected to be higher in
some areas but smaller in others;
- A section on current and pre-season conditions including discussion of
this spring's rate of ice extent decline, sea ice thickness products,
and atmospheric conditions;
- Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the 32 Outlook contributions.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2015 season. A call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list.
For more information, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)
3535 College Road Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710