Jonathan Chriest Meteorologist NOAA/National Weather Service Fairbanks, Alaska
On November 5-6th, 2020, Fairbanks received 14.7” of snowfall in 24 hours, a new 24 hour November record. Another storm right on its heels was poised to dump an additional 5-10” of snow on Fairbanks on November 8th and 9th. Instead, Fairbanks warmed above freezing, it rained, and only 1-3” of snow fell around town in the overnight hours. Join us as we will explore what went wrong, forecast uncertainty, and model failure modes.
Rick Thoman, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks
The tools and techniques for making monthly and season scale climate forecasts are rapidly changing, with the potential to provide useful forecasts at the month and longer range. We will review recent climate conditions around Alaska, review some forecast tools and finish up the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for February and the early spring season. Join the gathering online to learn more about Alaska climate and weather.
Tuesday, January 26 (10am AST) ACCAP Webinar: Are we living in the future? The climate extremes of recent and future Southeast Alaska droughts and floods (https://uaf-accap.org/event/se-ak-precip/) Rick Thoman, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Rick Lader, International Arctic Research Center (IARC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Jeremy Littell, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (USGS)
In the last couple years, SE Alaska has experienced historically unprecedented drought and now historically extreme rainfall. These events have challenged management of regional infrastructure, affected local and regional ecosystems, and more importantly, real consequences for people living and working in the region. Are they just natural variability, chance one-time weirdness, or harbingers of what is to come? Putting these recent events in context of our historical experience helps us understand droughts and deluges now and make sense of just how uncommon they really are in the past. Using the best climate science available, we can also ask how likely these kinds of events may be in the future given what we know about climate change and its impacts on extremes. And we can try to make sense of the risks involved and what the science suggests we can do about adapting to the future before it gets here. Join Rick Thoman, Rick Lader, and Jeremy Littell for a webinar about the past, present and future of precipitation extremes in southeast Alaska.